The BJP is facing more than just anti-incumbency in Haryana, where it has held power for a decade. Beyond voter dissatisfaction with the ruling government, the party is also grappling with the consequences of several recent policy decisions that have stirred opposition in the state.
Haryana’s Political Landscape Ahead of the Elections
Haryana, one of India’s most industrialized states and home to one of the highest per capita incomes, is heading to the polls on October 5, with 90 assembly seats up for grabs. In the 2019 elections, the BJP secured 40 seats, while the Congress won 31. Although the BJP remained the largest party, its seat tally dropped from 47 in the 2014 elections, while Congress managed to double its numbers. According to Yashwant Deshmukh of C Voter, the Congress could potentially emerge as the largest party in the upcoming 2024 elections.
Anti-Incumbency and Leadership Challenges
Deshmukh explains that after ten years in power, the BJP is facing significant challenges. “Their back is right on the wall. Not much is working in their favor,” he said. Deshmukh highlights that anti-incumbency is a critical factor, but not the only one. In their previous victory, BJP leveraged the Jat versus non-Jat dynamics and benefited from a split in anti-BJP votes among local parties. However, the current Chief Minister has struggled to deliver for the party, and state leadership remains weak.
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The absence of the “Modi dividend” seen in the Lok Sabha elections, where BJP typically gains an additional 10-20% vote share, has further weakened their position. In the 2019 national elections, BJP garnered more than 50% of the vote, but months later in the assembly elections, this support plummeted. Without this national-level boost, anti-incumbency and leadership issues are further intensified by the fallout from recent policy decisions.
Policy Backlash: Farmer Agitations and the Agniveer Scheme
Haryana’s strong agricultural economy still feels the weight of the farmer agitations, which began in response to the Central Government’s farm laws. The unrest remains a sore point in the state, where many young men also serve in the Indian armed forces. The Agnipath scheme, introduced in June 2022 for short-term induction of personnel into the armed forces, has also raised concerns. Several BJP-led states, including Haryana, have introduced job quotas for Agniveers, but the scheme has been met with skepticism.
Additionally, the BJP’s handling of the wrestlers’ agitation, which saw protests from prominent Indian athletes, has damaged the party’s perception in the state.
Congress’s Strong Leadership and BJP’s Hopes
The Congress party, led by Bhupinder Hooda in Haryana, presents a formidable challenge to the BJP. Deshmukh notes that the BJP’s hopes may rest on the possibility that Congress might not secure a majority, enabling BJP to ally with other factions. However, he cautions that this would be a difficult task.
Economic Growth Limited to Gurgaon
While Haryana recorded impressive economic growth of over 8% in 2023-24, surpassing the national average, much of this prosperity is concentrated in Gurgaon. The city, a suburb of Delhi, has emerged as an economic powerhouse, particularly in the automobile sector, but this success has not been replicated in other parts of the state. Gurgaon’s development stands in stark contrast to the rest of Haryana, where economic growth remains uneven.
Implications for Future Elections
Haryana’s election is seen as a bellwether for upcoming state elections in Maharashtra and Delhi. The outcome could influence political strategies and set the tone for contests in these key states.
For a deeper discussion on Haryana’s upcoming elections, you can watch the full podcast here.
Data Source: moneycontrol